By John Maynard Keynes

With this insightful exploration of the probabilistic connection among philosophy and the historical past of technological know-how, the recognized economist breathed new existence into reviews of either disciplines. initially released in 1921, this crucial mathematical paintings represented an important contribution to the idea in regards to the logical chance of propositions, and introduced the “logical-relationist” thought.

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**Extra resources for A Treatise on Probability (Dover Books on Mathematics)**

**Example text**

13 Play and plays, however, introduce into gaming a sphere of events that constitute performance of mere outer appearance, Theology and the Law and worse, they end up as idolatrous show. 15 The kind of semblance that Tertullian and Saint John Chrysostom, for example, saw in the spectaculum of the theater and other conjuring acts can by no means be adequately understood as a mere perversion of aesthetic play and mimesis. Rather, the offending spectacle had its source in the theologoumenon of bedazzlement and of idolatry.

The text on the wager poses this same question of the relation between method and persuasion. It does so, however, not in g a m e s f o r e x a m p l e a topical manner, but through its architecture. With nothing other than the gesture of mathematical structure entering a text purporting to be an apology of faith—an entrance that, as we shall see, is in fact twofold—the intrinsic division and intersection of cognition and persuasion come even more clearly to the light of day. By staging the emergence of numbers and formulas in the framework of words and meaning, the text on the wager demonstrates that of which the essay on method was speaking.

Calvin develops a second argument on the chance event that presupposes the first one but that now concerns human perception. For Calvin, however, the point is not, as it was with Aristotle’s tychē, that individuals relate certain events to their expectations or desires. Instead, he emphasizes the fact that humans have to cope with something like chance events in the course of nature, even if theologically and ontologically there is none. In the long run, this argument will open the possibility for games to model a kind of probability to reckon with.