Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics: by Brad Armendt (auth.), William L. Harper, Brian Skyrms (eds.)

By Brad Armendt (auth.), William L. Harper, Brian Skyrms (eds.)

The papers amassed listed here are, with 3 exceptions, these awarded at a convention on chance and causation held on the college of California at Irvine on July 15-19, 1985. The exceptions are that David Freedman and Abner Shimony weren't in a position to give a contribution the papers that they offered to this quantity, and that Clark Glymour who was once unable to wait the convention did give a contribution a paper. we wish to thank the nationwide technological know-how beginning and the varsity of Humanities of the collage of California at Irvine for beneficiant aid. WILLIAM HARPER collage of Western Ontario BRIAN SKYRMS college of California at Irvine Vll advent half I: judgements AND video games Causal notions have lately corne to determine prominently in discussions approximately rational selection making. certainly, a comparatively influential new method of theorizing approximately rational selection has emerge as known as "causal selection theory". 1 determination difficulties equivalent to Newcombe's challenge and a few models of the Prisoner's issue the place an act counts as proof for a wanted nation even if the agent understands his number of that act can't causally impact even if the nation obtains have influenced causal determination theorists.

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Extra info for Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics: Proceedings of the Irvine Conference on Probability and Causation

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See leffrey (1983), p. 146. 24 BRAD ARMENDT REFERENCES Armendt, B. (1983) Rational Decision Theorv: The Foundations of Callsal Decision Theory. D. dissertation for the Department of Philosophy, University of Illinois at Chicago. Armendt. B. (198ha) 'A foundation for causal decision theory", Topoi. 5, ,\-19. Armendt, B. ' Presented at the 1986 meetings of the Pacific Division of the American Philosophical Association. Balch, M. and Fishburn, P. ), North-Holland. Bolker, E. (1966) 'Functions resemhling quotients of measures', Transactions American Mathematical Society 124,292-312.

In game theory you assume your opponent to be ideally rational; therefore, you assume she or he will have been able to reconstruct the reasoning that leads you to choose A and will have predicted your choice. Thus, you assume that she or he will choose some best response to A when you assume that you will choose A. Von Neumann and Morgenstern (p. 14R) liken such best response reasoning to indirect proof in mathematics. One way to rule out a hypothesis is to assume it and then derive a contradiction.

Axioms AI-AI2 imply the representation theorem: THEOREM (Fishburn, 1973). If '0, X, and ;20 satisfy axioms 1-12 above, then there is a real- valued function V on X and a finitely-additive probability measure PA on {A & B: B E '0} for each A E '0' such (hat: I. ii. 1\1. x,A > y,B iff V(x,A) > V(y,B), for all x,A and y,B in X; V(-,A) is linear (as a function on M A ) for each A in 0'; PdA) = Pe(B) PH(A) whenever A =? B =? C, A E '0, and B, C E V(x,A v B) = PAvH(A) V(x,A) + PAvB(B) V(x,B) whenever x,A, x,B E X and A & B = <1>; furthermore.

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