By David T. Moore
Analysts and analysts alone create intelligence. Although technological marvels assist analysts by cataloging and presenting data, information and evidence in new ways, they do not do analysis. To be most effective, analysts need an overarching, reflective framework to add structured reasoning to sound, intuitivethinking. "Critical thinking" provides such a framework and goes further, positively influencing the entire intelligence analysis process. Analysts who adopt critical thinking stand to improve their analysis. This paper defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entireintelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit.
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Additional resources for Critical Thinking and Intelligence Analysis (Second Edition)
This inductive conclusion then led them to discount further evidence. For example, having concluded that all the previously considered Cuban HUMINT was false, each new piece, since it came from Cuba, also had to be false. Thus, a false 47 inductive conclusion led subsequently to false deductive conclusions. It does not appear that abductive reasoning strategies were ever employed. Figure 5: Respective Ranges of Soviet SS-4 MRBM and SS-5 IRBM Missiles Source: Derived from Hansen, “Soviet Deception,” 49.
What solutions were the most advantageous to each of the three actors? What were the motivating factors? A speculative – and admittedly simplified – critical comparison, again using Paul and Elder’s model (summarized in table 3) illustrates how critical thinking also reveals much about who stood to gain and who stood to lose in the crisis. Castro. Castro found his country under attack from the United States – both directly through economic sanctions and indirectly by 93 Batista loyalists living in Florida.
Whatever was left at the end of the process would be the most likely explanation. Would this guarantee a correct “answer”? ” It does so by moving the analyst away from a “pole of dogmatic tenacity” 64 toward a “pole of refutation” (summarized in figure 6). Figure 6: A Place for Analysis between Dogmatism and Criticism Source: Derived from Ben-Israel, “Methodology of Intelligence,” 679. It should be noted that operating too closely to a pole of refutation can also create problems. For example, analysts might be unable to distinguish between real threats and false positives; they might react to each one regardless of its validity.